Euro Dollar Outlook (Short & Medium Term)-July 30th


Short Run (Chart A)

Bollinger bands have been consistently tagged at the lower bands.  The formation of W, as the second low at the test remained below the lower band,  is indicative of a negative bias in € vs $.  The MACD line is above the signal line, which seems to suggest some bullishness in the Euro, but with it being below the center line, a pick up in the momentum in the medium term, is questionable.  OBV concurs with this and with a downward slope is indicative of a negative volume pressure, which foreshadows weakness in the Euro in the short term.

Medium Term (Chart B)

A resistance at 1.33 is highly probable, in light of waning momentum, and this correlates to a shallow Fibonacci retracement of 0%.  Volatility has reduced during the last fortnight as the currencies have traded in a strict band.  A breakdown in € seems possible, even though, bearishness, in its true sense, has not set in.  Line C on MACD shows a downward taper, with a slowing 12 day EMA, but still not below the 26 day EMA.  OBV2 seems steady


€:$ would be tested at 1.33, but a downward bias exists in the short term for the Euro, which foreshadows its weakness in this time frame.  Week 28, 8th – 12th August, would be interesting to watch.


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