Technical Analysis of Nymex Crude Oil:
From a technical analysis perspective, it is evident that crude oil will continue staging a recovery cycle during the remainder of 2016 that can spill well over into early 2017. What has been witnessed in the back drop of tightening crude oil supply is the development of a positive sentiment which has gradually raised the price of crude during 2016. Earlier some forecasted that crude oil may even touch $60 a barrel, which at that time seemed rather farfetched, but not now. What has prevailed is the unravelling of a nice and a clean wave pattern, which seems to have traversed up to wave 3 and now the intermediate projection is the corrective wave 4. If the concept of alternation is to prevail, then wave 2 was a short wxy correction, so wave 4 could be a long drawn out phenomenon taking time to unravel. Only then will wave 5 emerge which could well take the price to the 50 up to a 70 level. It is worth noting that wave 5 of commodities is rather protracted and can be the longest. By this standpoint, there is reason to be hopeful that wave 5 will be long drawn out allowing for the achievement of these price levels. Even the technical indicators seem to be pointing to such a pricing phenomenon to emerge with stochastic oversold and MACD line looking to cross the signal line pointing to an evident change in momentum.
However the secular trend is still downwards and it is expected that the price activity will remain in the corrective mode well into 2017, which would mean downward pressure after the above talked about price appreciation.